Saturday, April 14, 2012

Is Quibids about Luck?

Is Quibids all about luck? Are penny auctions all about luck? These are some natural questions to ask that probably every bidder has asked himself at one point or another. Sure, you can greatly increase your winning chances by following penny auction strategies, but what's the role of luck?

Irrespective of how many penny auctions you have won and how expert a penny auction bidder you are, there is no denying that luck does play a part in any penny auction win. This is mainly because winning at Quibids or any penny auction depends not just on your actions but that of others as well. And you cannot, obviously, control how other bidders behave. Any penny auction involves the interaction of hundreds of bidders in most cases, and it is a very difficult dynamic to predict. So yes, there is an element of luck. Of course, you can increase your chances of being "lucky" or just follow some strategies.


The thing to remember is that the most common winning method on penny auctions is through the Volunteer's Dilemma. This single phenomenon is probably responsible for more than 50% of all wins on penny auctions and this is no exaggeration. The problem with volunteer's dilemma is that it depends on the actions of a group of people who are not under your control. I discuss methods to improve your winning chances but that's all they can do.

So yes, any penny auction will have an element of chance. Perhaps you can come on top if you follow all my penny auction strategies on a huge scale, like hundreds of auctions. That is usually not how bidders operate. This is why I am a strong advocate of bidding only on items that you want, and using the Buy Now feature of Quibids.

Just to illustrate, I am taking an auction of the new iPad, which is available on Quibids now (this is actually a welcome change because I remember when the iPad-2 came out, Quibids took an agonizingly long time to have it up in the auctions and all around, plenty of penny auctions were already promoting themselves with the coveted piece of electronics). These two auctions ended on the same day, so it is all the more impressive. Look at them both and tell me what you think -

and
See the difference? It is HUGE! The first auction ended at $199.18 and the second at $4.83. In the first, bidders collectively spent a total of a whopping $11,950.80 and in the second, bidders collectively spent a total of only $289.80. The difference couldn't be starker. Do you still think there is no luck involved in Quibids or no luck involved in penny auctions?

What do you think about the role of luck and strategy in Quibids and penny auctions? Share your thoughts

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